Key Currency Exchange Rates for Friday, 6/22/18

Futures in New York were little changed after slumping 2.4 percent Monday. Inventories probably dropped by about 3.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report on Wednesday. Libya has stopped loadings from its biggest oil field, while Venezuela’s exports also declined in the first half of August. “Right now, we are seeing a draw on the U.S. inventory stocks,” said Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management Ltd. As “the driving season is coming to an end, the question is if the latest draws in U.S. inventories will continue.” U.S. crude stockpiles have declined by almost 43 million barrels since the end of June, according to the Energy Information Administration. While inventories have eased, oil production has increased to the highest since July 2015. Output from major shale fields is also forecast to climb to a record next month. Click Read More below for additional detail.

Futures rose as much as 1.2 percent to a six-week high, after advancing 2.1 percent on Tuesday. Donald Trump hinted at withdrawal from a deal curbing Iran’s nuclear program as Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman began a U.S. visit. Such a decision would raise the risk of the OPEC member’s oil exports being curtailed by sanctions. The specter of conflict involving giant producers is jolting prices, which have traded in a tight range since February. With the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies concluding that the market will rebalance by the end of September, Citigroup Inc. predicts oil’s recent “sideways” move is unlikely to last. Still, investors will be wary of growth in U.S. supply, which has threatened to undermine OPEC’s efforts to eliminate a global glut. Click Read More below for additional information.

Import patterns appear to be returning to normal pre-pandemic levels amid a slowdown in cargo. With a pandemic-driven surge finally over, monthly import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports has fallen below the 2 million TEU mark and should remain there through most of this spring, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. “After nearly three years of COVID-19’s impact on global trade and consumer demand, import patterns appear to be returning to what was normal prior to 2020,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “Nonetheless, as inflation eases and consumer spending returns, we project that growth will slowly return going into the second half of the year.”