IAB: Media Buyers Boost 2024 Ad Outlook To +11.8%

The U.S. ad market expanded for its 11th consecutive month in March -- rising 4.3% over March 2023 -- according to the latest monthly installment of Guideline's U.S. Ad Market Tracker. Smaller ad categories outpaced the growth of the top categories by a margin of nearly four-to-one. While the top 10 increased spending only 1.9% over March 2023, all other categories expanded 7.9%. March's growth was also due to a massive increase in digital vs. traditional media ad spending.

The U.S. advertising marketplace fell 4.6% in September vs. the same month a year ago, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and suggesting the beginning of a new U.S. ad recession. While the June-September 2022 declines compare with healthy gains for the same months a year ago, the 2021 boom was also the beginning of downward trend (see chart above). The new monthly data comes as major agency holding company forecast units have been reaffirming double-digit growth expectations for calendar year 2022 and mid-single-digit gains for 2023, at least at this point.

Many catalog mailers are seeing large increases in revenue and growth in their new-to-file buyers because of the surge in pandemic-driven online purchases. However, with the growth in the number of buyers comes lots of uncertainty. Are these new buyers different than buyers pre-pandemic? The business issue with the significant influx of pandemic buyers is whether they will convert into loyal customers and respond profitably to future catalog mailings. Response rates for pandemic buyers can be quickly tested to know if they are the same or different from the existing base of buyers. The new-to-file buyers can be broken out with precision. Segmenting should be straightforward.