AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report for Friday, 7/10/20

Futures were little changed in New York after falling 0.8 percent Friday. Prices still capped a fifth weekly gain last week, the longest run since October 2016. The plan to boost security was reported by Al-Arabiya television on Saturday, citing the energy ministry of Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter. The pipeline resumed pumping later in the day after a brief halt. Oil has climbed about 20 percent since the start of September as global supplies tighten and speculation mounts that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will extend output curbs past the end of March. In the U.S., drillers last week increased the rig count by the most since June, according to Baker Hughes. “Political developments in Saudi Arabia sent bullish ripples across the energy complex,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London. Click Read More below for additional information.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 3.7% in November after falling 5% in October. In November, the index equaled 112.2 (2015=100) compared with 108.3 in October. “The 2020 seesaw pattern continued in November as typical seasonality is not holding this year,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “It was a nice gain, but the rebound was not enough to make up for October’s drop. Robust retail freight, helped by consumer spending, especially e-commerce, and very lean inventories helped truck tonnage last month. Strong single-family housing starts are also aiding freight tonnage, but lackluster restaurant, manufacturing and energy sectors remain a drag. I expect these softer industries to benefit from widespread COVID-19 vaccinations in 2021.” October’s decrease was revised up to 5% from our November 24 press release.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 5.4% in March after increasing 0.9% in February. In March, the index equaled 111.6 (2015=100) compared with 118 in February. “After increasing a total of 2.6% during the three previous months, March’s sequential decline was the largest monthly drop since April 2020 during the start of the pandemic,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Falling home construction, decreasing factory output and soft retail sales all hurt contract freight tonnage – which dominates ATA’s tonnage index – during the month. Despite the largest year-over-year drop since October 2020, contract freight remains more robust than the spot market, which continues to see prolonged weakness.” Compared with March 2022, the SA index decreased 5%, which was the first year-over-year decrease since August 2021. In February, the index was up 1.9% from a year earlier. During the first quarter, tonnage was 0.6% below the same three month period in 2022.