Crude Oil Prices Settle Higher as OPEC Reportedly Mulls Modest Output Hike

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4% in October after rising 2.2% in September. In October, the index equaled 113 (2015=100) compared with 112.6 in September. “October’s gain was the third straight totaling 2.9%,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The combination of solid retail sales, inventory rebuilding, and generally higher factory output offset some areas of softer freight growth, like home construction, in October. “Economic growth remains on solid footing, which is good for truck freight volumes going forward. The largest problem for the industry isn’t the amount of demand, but making sure we have adequate supply. It is good to see that fleets were able to haul more tonnage in recent months in the face of constrained supply,” he said. September’s reading was revised down slightly to 2.2% from our October 19 press release.

Growth in the U.S. economy boomed in 2018, slowed in 2019, and turned south in 2020 when COVID-19 started to spread widely in March. In 2019, trucks shipped 72.5% of all domestic tonnage, including an increase of 366 million tons over 2018. Also, across the northern and southern borders, trucks moved three-quarters of the value of trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Compared with previous recessions, trucking fared far better than the overall economy as the recession in the first half of 2020 was concentrated in the much less freight intensive, services sector. At the start of 2020, the U.S. remained in the longest economic expansion on record with the unemployment rate at 50-year lows. In the three primary categories of freight—retail, manufacturing, and housing construction—only manufacturing was struggling from an industry-specific recession in 2019. In January, retail sales notched a record high, and construction on new homes surged to its highest level in over a decade, according to the Census Bureau. Even manufacturing showed signs that it bottomed out in 2019, as the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index reported an expanding manufacturing sector in January and February after 5 months of contraction.

American Dollar to Canadian Dollar = 0.771135; American Dollar to Chinese Yuan = 0.155831; American Dollar to Euro = 1.167321; American Dollar to Japanese Yen = 0.009136; American Dollar to Mexican Peso = 0.050059.