Zenith Ad Forecast Downgraded Again

Macroeconomic troubles have prompted Zenith to lower its global ad-spend growth prediction to 4% for 2017, when total expenditures are now expected to reach $558 billion.

That’s a downgrade from the 4.2% growth that Zenith had forecast in June. The June forecast was a downgrade from the 4.4% the Publicis Groupe media agency had forecast in March.

“I was surprised to downgrade so many Eurozone ad markets, since the region is currently enjoying its best economic performance for a decade,” says Jonathan Barnard, the agency’s head of forecasting and director of global intelligence. There are also pockets of weakness in Mexico and Thailand, while Malaysia’s recovery from a 2016 downturn is taking longer than expected.

These disappointments have been partially offset by improvements in Canada and Russia. For now, Zenith projects that global ad expenditure will hit 4.2% in 2018.

Although some persistent uncertainty remains in the U.S. marketplace — particularly with regard to policy changes the Trump Administration may or may not implement — advertising is forecast to increase 3.5% in 2017 to $434.5 billion, roughly in line with earlier predictions for the year. Next year the U.S. market’s growth is currently expected to hit 3.4%, per Zenith’s latest forecast.

Digital — and particularly mobile — continues to take dollars away from print media as consumers use mobile apps. The most rapid growth is coming from online video (+18%) and social media (+25%), while U.S. TV is still growing, only fractionally at 0.5% this year.

American print media continue its steep decline, with newspapers falling 9% and magazines down 7.4% this year.

Globally, social media — growing at 20% per year — and online video — growing at 21% per year — are driving 14% annual growth in total display advertising, according to the updated forecasts.
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